Tuesday, April 30, 2019

MLB Predictions May 3 – 5: Dodgers and Padres featured series

As the calendar hits May, a full month of the MLB season is in the books. The divisional races are already heating up. The Los Angeles Dodgers versus San Diego Padres highlight the weekend games, with two other series to be examined. Note that all information is for games played through April 29.

Los Angeles Dodgers versus San Diego Padres

The top two teams in the NL West battle in this series. The Dodgers come in at 19-12, are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +29 on the Power Ranking Indicator. San Diego is two games back at 16-13, are “average” after going 5-5 over their last ten and +24 on the Power Ranking Indicator. Both teams have been involved in games scoring low, so betting the “under” is the safe play. In terms of stability, the Dodgers are +7 on the Team Volatility Oscillator, while the Padres are at -1. Considering the favorite/underdog status for San Diego is likely not too wise in this one. On the mound, Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda are all profitable according to the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. They are scheduled for the Dodgers. Joey Luchesi is -418 in terms of profit and he his set to start on Friday for the Padres. Nick Margevicius and Chris Paddock are marginally profitable and set to pitch the weekend. Best bet is for the Dodgers to take two of three to maintain their lead in the division.

New York Mets versus Milwaukee Brewers

The New York Mets are 14-14 and second in the NL East. They head to Milwaukee for a weekend series against the Brewers, who are 16-14, third in the NL Central. Both teams are “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator and the Mets have a +15 to +13 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Mets have been a part of games that are trending “over” and the Brewers’ games have been trending “under”, so it’s best not to play the “over/under” in this one. Milwaukee has been relatively unstable, so avoiding betting for or against them strictly on their favorite/underdog status. Of the six pitchers scheduled for this series, Jason Vargas for the Mets on Sunday (+1687 profit) and Zach Davies for the Brewers on Saturday (+1580) are the best bets. Friday’s game is a toss-up with both Steven Matz and Gio Gonzalez in the red in terms of profit. Give the Brewers a slight edge playing at home and they should win the series two games to one.

Minnesota Twins versus New York Yankees

The Twins are at the top of the AL Central with a 17-9 record and the Yankees are 17-11, two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East. Both teams are “burning hot” with the Twins having a +28 to +22 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. For this series, the clear choice is to bet the “over” as both teams are playing games trending in that direction. Kyle Gibson is on the mound Friday for the Twins and he is the most profitable pitcher for them this weekend at +888. Saturday’s starter Jake Odorizzi has been a poor bet at -1433. JA Happ is the best bet for the Yankees this weekend, he’s at +609 and faces off against Odorizzi. Both teams have been stable according to the Team Volatility Oscillator, so pay close attention to favorite/underdog status. Best bet is for the Twins to win Friday with the Yankees following on Saturday. Sunday’s game could be a toss-up, but Michael Pineda has been excellent and is pitching for the Twins. Lean towards the Twins in the finale to take the series.

 

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