Tuesday, August 6, 2019

MLB Predictions August 9-11: AL Central battle headlines weekend action

Entering the final third of the MLB season and playoff races are tightening. There are several matchups on tap for the weekend, with the Indians versus Twins highlighting the list.

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Cleveland Indians versus Minnesota Twins

The top two teams in the AL Central battle in Minnesota. The Twins hold a +25 to +23 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. They have won eight of their last ten and four in a row. Cleveland is “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator, having gone 6-4 over their last ten. Both teams are playing in high scoring games, so betting the “over” is a good move for games in this series. According to the Team Volatility Oscillator, both clubs are quite stable, meaning they perform consistently as their favorite/underdog status indicates. Shane Bieber is the best bet on the mound for the Indians, coming in at +690 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Both Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios for the Twins are in the red on the same oscillator.  The Twins have an edge at home and while the Indians will give a good fight, Minnesota should take the series, two games to one.

Philadelphia Phillies versus San Francisco Giants

The Giants are a game below .500 and third in the NL West. The Phillies are battling for a wild card spot and tied with the Nationals for second in the NL East.  Philadelphia has a +15 to +13 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. Neither team has been great lately, as their “average down” and “ice cold down” statuses on the Team Strength Oscillator indicate. Best to avoid the over/under in this series, as the teams are trending on opposite sides of line according to the Totals Predictor. The Phillies have been the more stable to the teams and are nearly .500 on the road while the Giants have struggled to a 25-29 record at home. Of the scheduled starting pitchers, Jake Arrieta is the best bet for the Phillies and Vince Velasquez is the worst according to the pitcher profit. Jeff Samardzjia comes in at -3762 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator and is one to avoid for the Giants. The Phillies should have a slight edge, despite playing on the road. Look for a series win for Philadelphia.

Los Angeles Angels versus Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox come in third in the AL East and the Angels sit fourth in the AL West. Both teams have been struggling, going 2-8 over their last ten and “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The over/under is not a solid bet for games in this series since the teams are trending on opposite sides of the line. While neither team has been extremely stable, the Red Sox have been more so at +12 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. Rick Porcello comes in at +1480 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator and is the best bet on the mound for the Red Sox. Jaime Barria is a solid +43 bet for the Angels. One team will get out of their slump and I think it will be the Red Sox at home, taking two of three this weekend.

Arizona Diamondbacks versus Los Angeles Dodgers

In this NL West battle, the Dodgers take on the Diamondbacks, who sit in second but are 18 games behind Los Angeles in the division. The Dodgers have a +27 to +17 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and are 7-3 over their last ten games. Arizona is “ice cold down” going 4-6 over their last ten. The Dodgers are among the most stable teams in the league and being home favorites is a good sign to place your bet on them. Kenta Maeda has been a poor bet for the Dodgers at -1717 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. However, he still has a slight edge over his opponent Robbie Ray, at -1781. The best bet for the series is Alex Young, at +364 on the mound for Arizona on Friday.  Los Angeles is too powerful and will win two of three this weekend.

Tampa Bay Rays versus Seattle Mariners

The Rays come in second in the AL East and have a +26 to +6 advantage over the Mariners, last in the AL West. The Rays are “burning hot” after an 8-2 stretch and the Mariners have dropped their last four and 6-4 over their last ten. Both teams are showing stability at +25 on the Team Volatility Oscillator.  Of the scheduled starting pitchers,  Charlie Morton is the most solid beet for the Rays and Wade LeBlanc and Marco Gonzales have both been profitable for the Mariners. The Ryas have one of the best road records at 35-22 and should continue this against a weak Mariners squad. Look for a two games to one series win for the Rays.

 

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