Tuesday, September 17, 2019

MLB Picks September 20-22: The final push towards the playoffs begins

The MLB season is down to the home stretch with plenty of questions about who will make the postseason. Several key matchups are in store, including the Cardinals versus Cubs in the NL Central.

St. Louis Cardinals versus Chicago Cubs

In this divisional battle, the first-place Cardinals face the second-place Cubs. St. Louis is “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator, going 5-5 over their last ten. The Cubs have won five straight, on the rice and have a +22 to +16 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Chicago is the more stable team, coming in at +24 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. According to the Totals Predictor, betting the “over” is a safe play. All three scheduled starters for the Cardinals are in the green on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Yu Darvish for the Cubs is the worst bet at -1792, while Cole Hamels is the best at +1322. Look for the Cubs to continue their hot play and win two-of-three, inching closer to the top.

Boston Red Sox versus Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays host the Red Sox in this AL East showdown. Tampa Bay is 7-3 over their last ten and has a +23 to +16 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. They are also “burning hot down” versus “dead” for Boston, who are 4-6 over their last ten. Both teams are playing in games trending “under” on the Team Volatility Oscillator. If looking for the team with the most stability, the Rays have it at +33, a good indication they will perform well as home favorites. Rick Porcello, who starts for the Red Sox on Friday, is the best bet at +1249 profit and Tyler Glasnow is the worst for the Rays, going on Saturday. Already in good playoff position, the Rays will further solidify that with a series win.

Kansas City Royals versus Minnesota Twins

In this AL Central weekend series, both teams are 5-5 over their last ten. In first on the division, the Twins have a +25 to +2 advantage over the fourth-place Royals. Kansas City is “burning hot” versus “average down” for Minnesota. Best to avoid the over/under in games in this series since teams are trending on opposite sides of the line. None of the six scheduled starting pitchers are in the green on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Both teams are stable at +30 to +28 in favor of Minnesota, which means the Twins are likely to be very successful at home as favorites and Royals lose as underdogs. Go with the Twins to win and perhaps sweep the series.

Arizona Diamondbacks versus San Diego Padres

The second and fourth-place teams in the NL West battle with the Diamondbacks having a slim playoff hope for a wild card. They are just 3-7 over their last ten, “dead” status and +8 on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Padres have lost five straight, “average” and +7 on the Power Ranking Indicator. Neither team has been extremely stable, with the Padres at +12 to +5 for the Diamondbacks. Eric Lauer is the most profitable of the Padres starters for the weekend at +881 and Robbie Ray is at +417 for Arizona. San Diego is below .500 at home and will have difficulties in this series. The Diamondbacks will win two-of-three.

Pittsburgh Pirates versus Milwaukee Brewers

Despite the absence of Christian Yelich, the Brewers are 9-1 over their last ten and in great playoff position. Both teams are “burning hot”  with the Brewers holding a +23 to +9 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Pirates are much more stable at +21 to +5. Over the scheduled starting pitchers, the best matchup is Saturday’s game featuring Trevor Williams (+986 profit) versus Zach Davies (+1733). It’s difficult to see the Brewers losing a series at home late while they are on a roll. I pick the Brewers to take two of three to stay in the hunt.

 

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